At the Sharm el-Sheikh Climate Change Conference (COP 27), World leaders, heads of business and civil society members came together to act (!) – towards achieving the world’s collective climate goals as agreed under the Paris Agreement and the Convention. The conference took place from 6-20 November 2022 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.
After a year of extreme weather that brought home the reality of the climate crisis for many, there was some real hope, I amongst them, that delegates will make real progress in the effort to prevent a climate catastrophe.
It clearly wasn’t an easy conference in the face of the Russian war in the Ukraine and the Geopolitical, economic, and inflationary pressures experienced around the world.
Nevertheless, I had anticipated more safeguarding the outcomes that were secured in Glasgow, and to go further.
Although the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund is a breakthrough, COP27 did not deliver.
Above all, COP failed to sufficiently address the climate science which is now screaming at us. UN Secretary-General Guterres says loud and clear when referring to expansion in oil, gas, and coal:
“We cannot afford to carry on with business-as-usual”.
Challenges for policymakers in 2023 are more pressing than ever. A renewables-based future is within our grasp, a fact increasingly recognised by finance and investors. But to seize that future, governments and the fossil fuel industrialists must also recognise the fossil industry must be weaned away from and the greenwashing wherever it is found must stop.
Cop27 president Sameh Shoukry called gas “a transitional source of energy1”. In February this year, the European Commission controversially said the same whilst for some it is disappointing to read it is nonetheless a transitional position.2
According to the IPCC when burned, gas is a little over half as polluting3 to the climate as coal. However, methane venting and leaks from gas infrastructure can cause a huge amount of pollution.4
At the end of the conference there was no clear follow-through on the phase down of coal and other fossil fuels in fact the gas lobby pressurised more leaders to recognise it as a transitional energy source!
The forum members did pledge to cooperate on carbon capture and storage and hydrogen made from fossil gas – but not renewables. They did not mention offshore wind! And what has happened to solar and onshore wind?
So, the ‘big announcement’ from the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 27 was limited to a breakthrough agreement to provide “loss and damage” funding for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. I wonder whether this will be new money or simply moving overseas aid budgets!
As we move forward the world is not on course to meet the 1.5C target or to reduce gas use at the rate meeting 1.5C would require. UN Climate Change said on Thursday that national pledges would see the temperature rise by 2.5C on pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
When the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2015, its architects drew on the most sophisticated science available when warning world leaders not to let temperatures rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Since then, climate data has become even more unequivocal.5
At 1.5 degrees of warming, we can expect 48 centimetres of sea level rise by the end of the century, which is roughly twice as much as current levels.6 Two degrees of warming would lift sea levels by 56 centimetres.
Under 1.5 degrees of warming, 17% of land will face extreme rainfall and average rainfall will increase by 2%, according to Carbon Brief. An increase of 2 degrees would expose 36% of land to extreme rainfall and cause average rainfall to rise 4%. That means that half a degree of warming would double the effects. This seemingly minor difference would also double the length of the average drought. The World Health Organization warns that drought is expected to displace 700 million people by 2030 alone. 7
It’s still possible to keep temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, and there’s no mystery to how this can be achieved. Countries have to phase out fossil fuels and extractive industries,8 let the natural world recover, and fully fund a global just transition.9
Packaging along with all other industries must play its part by identifying their carbon footprint (CO2e). The way to do this is to capture the granular detail, accurately calculate and transparently report the results. To use authentic third parties as generally speaking consumers have lost faith in businesses marking their own homework! ‘Benchmark’ enables informed decisions not just the CO2e but in tandem the commercial and financial implications.
Alok Sharma in his closing remarks of COP 27 said to the World leaders, heads of business and civil society members
“All of us need to look ourselves in the mirror and consider if we have fully risen to that challenge (keeping below 1.5 degrees) over the past two weeks”.
“Each of us will have to explain that, to our citizens, to the world’s most vulnerable countries and communities and ultimately to the children and grandchildren to whom many of us now go home”.
COP28 will take place in the UAE in late 2023 at Dubai Expo City. Let’s hope this will be the one where our leaders actually deliver the world’s collective climate goals as agreed under the Paris Agreement and the Convention.
REFERENCES
1. https://apnews.com/article/climate-politics-africa-sameh-shoukry-ef68f280f3fadcbb337f673ee55a2762?utm_campaign=Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20220524&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
2. https://climatechangenews.com/2022/02/02/european-commission-endorses-fossil-gas-transition-fuel-private-investment/
3. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter7.pdf
4. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/28/nord-stream-pipeline-blowouts-highlight-vulnerability-of-fossil-fuels/
5. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/28/climate-crisis-zero-fossil-fuels-environment
6. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
7. https://www.who.int/health-topics/drought#tab=tab_1
8. https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/research/8-reasons-why-we-need-to-phase-out-the-fossil-fuel-industry/
9. https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/what-is-a-just-transition/
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